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WASHINGTON – An Army colonel's colorfully worded memo arguing for the U.S. to declare victory in Iraq and leave next summer suggests the possibility of an important shift in the debate about U.S. withdrawal plans.
Until now the question has been whether thousands of U.S. troops might need to stay beyond a December 2011 deadline for a complete U.S. pullout, in order to continue training and advising Iraqi forces.
The memo written by Col. Timothy R. Reese, a U.S. adviser to the Iraqi military command, turns that question on its head by asking whether it makes more sense to get out long before the deadline — scrapping President Barack Obama's plan for an extended advisory mission.
For now, Reese's view — "It's time for the U.S. to declare victory and go home" — seems to be in the distinct minority. The conventional wisdom is that in order to avoid an Iraqi collapse that would squander six-plus years of enormous U.S. sacrifices, a residual force of as many as 50,000 U.S. troops should remain to train and advise Iraqis for 16 months after all combat troops depart in August 2010.
Might that change in coming months as Iraqi forces take firmer control and perhaps lose interest in U.S. help?
Might the post-August 2010 advisory mission go forward but with far fewer U.S. troops participating?
Among those who foresee that possibility is Conrad Crane, director of the Army Military History Institute and an expert on counterinsurgency. In an interview Friday, he said it's too early to know but that if violence levels continue to decline there may be more talk of an early scaling back of the mission.
Andrew Bacevich, professor of international relations and history at Boston University, strongly doubts it.
"I don't see what constituency is going to seize upon the Reese argument and insist that the time has come to pull the plug," he said in an e-mail exchange. "Remember that the vast majority of the American people have tuned Iraq out."
As much as the Obama administration and top Pentagon officials would like to get out of Iraq — in part to shift more effort and resources to the war in Afghanistan — they also are leery of going too fast.
"The military leadership of the nation is committed to meeting the timelines as laid out" in the agreement that the administration of former President George W. Bush signed with the Iraqi government last fall, Navy Capt. John Kirby, spokesman for Joint Chiefs chairman Adm. Mike Mullen, said Friday.
In Baghdad, a spokesman for the U.S. military command said Reese's accusation of Iraqi incompetence and a "sudden coolness" toward American military advisers and commanders misses the point.
"I think the author is conveying that the problem is too hard, and therefore we should quit," said Col. John Robinson, spokesman for Multi-National Corps Iraq. "But it's clear that (the war effort) has been much harder many times before when the fight was tougher and the violence much greater. It's important we honor our approved plan. We have a long-term goal of strategic partnership with Iraq."
Robinson said Reese was temporarily out of Iraq and not immediately available for comment.
In one narrow but significant way, the Reese view does align with the standard U.S. military line: that the goal in training and equipping Iraqi security forces is not to make them as good as U.S. forces but simply to make them "good enough" to keep order.
The trick is judging what is good enough.
In his memo, which was intended for limited distribution among U.S. military officers in Baghdad but has ended up circulating on the Internet, Reese throws a lot of strong criticism at the Iraqi military. He cites "grievous shortcomings," calling them corrupt, lazy and unable to stand up to sectarian pressures.
But his larger point is that for all their flaws, they are "good enough for Iraq in 2009." And he says that staying beyond August 2010 is not going to make Iraq forces or their government much better.

It's not hard to find a wide variety of views about Iraqi forces' competence and potential for improvement.

Spc. Mike Tidd of D Company, 252nd Combined Arms Battalion of the North Carolina National Guard's 30th Heavy Brigade, told an Associated Press reporter July 24 during a patrol on the southern outskirts of Baghdad that he's not sure the Iraqi security forces are ready to stand on their own.

"I kind of feel like right now if we just up and left, it would be kind of 50-50," said Tidd, 22, of Boone, N.C.

Maj. Gen. Robert Caslen, commander of U.S. forces throughout northern Iraq, acknowledged Friday in an e-mail exchange that U.S. troops are feeling frustrated with some aspects of the relationship with Iraqi forces, particularly in the weeks since U.S. forces moved out of Iraqi cities June 30.

But he said the overall outlook is positive.

"Before 30 June the Iraqi people saw the United States as in the lead, but now the Iraqi security forces are celebrating their leadership," Caslen wrote. "That is something I view as a good thing. It shows competence, confidence, and commitment. This is the army we trained them to become, and this is who they want to be."

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Associated Press writers Deb Riechmann, Chelsea Carter and Hadeel al-Shalchi in Baghdad contributed to this report.

BRUSSELS – European air safety regulators told world airlines on Friday they will have to replace hundreds of air speed sensors of the type that may have contributed to the Air France Airbus A330 crash in the Atlantic Ocean in June.
The announcement came after Airbus recommended that airlines flying its planes exchange some of the speed sensors manufactured by Thales Corp. for another model.
Investigators have focused on the possibility that the external monitors on the A330, known as pitot tubes, iced over and gave false speed readings to the Air France plane's computers as it ran into a turbulent thunderstorm. Each modern jet airliner carries at least three of the L-shaped metal pitot tubes that jut from the forward fuselage.
Several other manufacturers make the components, including North Carolina-based Goodrich Corp.
"The European Aviation Safety Agency plans to propose an airworthiness directive mandating that all A330 and A340 currently fitted with Thales pitot probes must be fitted with at least two Goodrich probes, allowing a maximum of one Thales to remain fitted to the aircraft," said a statement released by the agency based in Cologne, Germany.
The statement said the airworthiness directive — effectively an order to the planes' operators — would be issued within the next 14 days. It described the move as precautionary, based on pitot tube data the agency had analyzed in recent weeks.
Thales has declined to comment on the announcement.
Airbus spokesman Stefan Schaffrath told The Associated Press that his company also had recommended on Thursday that airlines using its planes exchange two of the three pitot tubes on each of its A330 and A340 aircraft from the Thales type to the Goodrich product.
The recommendation would create a mix of different sensors that would increase safety by providing redundancy if one of the systems failed.
Schaffrath said the move would affect some 200 aircraft in the inventory of various airlines.
He noted that it remains unclear whether incorrect air speed data had contributed in any way to the Air France crash, but said Airbus has since received more feedback from airlines about glitches with the Thales probes.
In June, one of the Air France pilots' unions urged its members to refuse to fly Airbus A330s and A340s unless their Thales tubes have been replaced.
"Obviously pilots are watching this very carefully," said Philip von Schoppenthau, secretary-general of the European Cockpit Association. "We obviously want safe operations, and there is a clearly identified problem with the Thales probes that needs to be addressed."
But air safety experts have cautioned that there was no hard evidence that a pitot tube malfunction caused Air France Flight 447 to crash during a thunderstorm on June 1. The black boxes containing flight data recordings have never been recovered.
Air France said in a statement Friday that it would begin replacing Thales pitot tubes with Goodrich models on its A330 and A340 aircraft after it receives the technical instructions from Airbus next week.
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Associated Press writers Deborah Seward, Tobias Schmidt and Greg Keller in Paris contributed to this report.

CARACAS, Venezuela – Venezuelan rights activists said Wednesday that President Hugo Chavez's government is using the courts to stifle protests.
Marino Alvarado of Provea, a prominent rights group, said more than 2,200 people, including dozens of labor union representatives, have been indicted on criminal charges stemming from their participation in protests over the last four years.
"The criminalization of protests has become a state policy, They are trying to instill fear so people don't protest," Alvarado told reporters after presenting a petition to the Attorney General's Office.
Espacio Publico and Cofavic — two other leading rights watchdogs — also signed the document that urges prosecutors to stop bringing charges against protesters.
Most have been charged with misdemeanors, Alvarado said. But some have been prohibited from joining future demonstrations and barred from leaving their hometowns or publicly discussing their cases.
Others face possible prison sentences. Fourteen employees who demonstrated for better working conditions at Sidor, the country's largest steel maker, are currently on trial and could be sentenced to as many as 10 years in prison for protesting within one of the plant's "security zones."
Juan Valor, one of the Sidor workers, said the trial could set an ominous precedent.
"If the judge rules that we are guilty, union leaders throughout the country could be jailed for organizing protests," Valor, a 49-year-old machinery operator and former union representative at Sidor, speaking by telephone.
Representatives of the Attorney General's Office did not answer telephone calls seeking comment on Wednesday. Government officials have dismissed concerns about the prosecution of protesters in the past, saying Chavez's administration fully respects the right to protest.
Venezuela's National Security Law allows as much as 10 years in prison for anyone involved in demonstrations within "security zones" ringing government offices, oil installations, military garrisons and other public facilities.
Another law punishes people who "prevent the production, importation, gathering, transportation, distribution or marketing of essential goods" with six to 10 years in prison.
Venezuelans are taking to the streets more frequently to protest unchecked crime, call attention to faulty public services or demand better working conditions, according to Espacio Publico — a local rights watchdog.
More than 750 protests were staged during the first four months of 2009, compared to 1,600 for all of 2008, according to Espacio Publico.

MIAMI – In her online profile, Paula Jones says she is 42, "nonjudgmental" and likes fishing, gardening and cuddling. There's a catch, though. Jones' picture shows her in her blue Florida prison uniform. She won't be out until at least 2010.
Her listing is posted on a Web site called WriteAPrisoner.com. She's looking for a pen pal.
"If you're looking for someone genuine and true, I'm looking for you," her profile says. "I'm just a stamp away."
By posting her profile, however, Jones is breaking a rule. Florida officials have banned inmates from having the Match.com-style listings, saying prisoners just create problems for their outside-the-pen pals.
Other states — Missouri, Montana, Indiana and Pennsylvania — have similar restrictions. Now lawsuits in Florida and elsewhere say the bans are unfair and violate First Amendment rights.
"The public knows when they're writing to these people that they're prisoners," said Randall Berg Jr., a lawyer representing two pen pal groups — including Florida-based WriteAPrisoner.com — that have sued in the state. "Nobody is being duped here."
WriteAPrisoner.com president and owner Adam Lovell says the bulk of the people who use his site to write to inmates are from religious groups, military people stationed overseas and others affected by the prison. Fraud isn't as widespread as Florida corrections officials suggest, he said.
Jones, who is serving time in a women's prison north of Orlando, wrote in a letter to The Associated Press that she's not a danger to potential pen pals. She says she wants someone to write to for emotional support and to be less lonely.
"Not everyone has (ulterior) motives, lies or solicits," wrote Jones, who pleaded guilty to cocaine possession with the intent to sell. "Some of us ... even if it's very few are truly genuine and hope to meet someone good in our life."
But the Florida Department of Corrections doesn't want to take any chances. In 2003, the department changed its policy to prohibit inmates from advertising for pen pals or getting mail from pen pal groups. Inmates who continue to advertise can have privileges such as visitation or phone calls revoked.
The department made the change after receiving complaints from people who had been taken advantage of and from victims and their families who saw prisoners' ads, said Department of Corrections spokeswoman Gretl Plessinger.
"We're doing it to protect the public," Plessinger said. "Inmates can have pen pals — they just can't solicit for pen pals."
Other states make similar arguments and have now drawn similar lawsuits.
In Indiana, the American Civil Liberties Union is representing prisoners protesting the state's policy, which also prevents inmates from advertising on Web sites or receiving mail from pen pal organizations.
The ACLU also says it is working on a lawsuit over Missouri's policy and investigating the policy in Montana, where inmates may not receive mail from people who identify themselves as a pen pal.
For now, some Florida inmates are ignoring the ban and listing themselves anyway. The inmates communicate with the sites by sending letters in the mail, and sometimes family members pay the fees for the sites, about $40 a year for WriteAprisoner.com and other sites.
On WriteAprisoner.com, Florida members range from a 41-year-old who tells potential pals she's a 36DD to a 28-year-old who says he has had a "bumpy lifestyle" and is on death row for a crime he didn't commit.
Then there's a man spending life in prison for first-degree murder who has found another way around the ban.

"Please note that the Florida prison system is now locking us up in confinement for placing ads for pen pals," he writes on his WriteAPrisoner.com page. "So if you respond to this ad please don't mention the profile."

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On the Net:

Florida Department of Corrections: http://www.dc.state.fl.us/

WriteAPrisoner.com: http://writeaprisoner.com/